Why did the U.S. choose to launch an attack on Iran?
The decision by the United States and Israel to launch an attack on Iran at this juncture stems from a convergence of strategic considerations, driven primarily by the imminent breakthrough in nuclear issues, geostrategic security anxieties, ambitions for regime change, and domestic political agendas.
1. Direct Spark: Iran's Nuclear Program Approaching the "Weapons Grade" Threshold
The United States regards Iran's nuclear activities as an inviolable security red line. In early 2026, Iran's enriched uranium concentration exceeded 60%, nearing the 90% weapons-grade level required for nuclear weapons, while significantly restricting the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspection authority, rendering its nuclear facilities a "black box." Despite three rounds of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in February, where the U.S. demanded the dismantling of key nuclear facilities such as Fordow and Natanz and the transfer of enriched uranium to the U.S., Iran flatly refused. After the talks collapsed, the U.S. concluded that diplomatic means could not prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and thus resorted to military action to "physically eliminate" its nuclear capabilities.
II. Deep Strategy: Reshaping the Middle East Order and Containing Iran's Regional Influence
Iran has long supported the "resistance axis" groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, which Israel views as a survival threat. In recent years, despite heavy blows to this network, the U.S. remains concerned that Iran seeks to consolidate Shia forces through nuclear deterrence, challenging its dominance in the Middle East. This strike targets not only nuclear facilities but also key objectives like missile launch sites and Revolutionary Guard command centers, aiming to systematically weaken Iran's military and geopolitical projection capabilities.
3. Key Opportunity: Intelligence Breakthrough and the Opening of the "Strategic Window"
It was disclosed that the U.S. intelligence system collaborated with Iranian insiders to accurately track the temporary whereabouts of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, prompting him to launch an attack on the afternoon of February 28 to achieve a "decapitation" effect. Additionally, the U.S. believes the current moment presents a "once-in-a-century" opportunity to resolve the Iran issue: domestic protests have erupted due to frequent economic sanctions, external ally Syria's regime has collapsed, and cracks have emerged in Iran's defense system, placing it in a vulnerable state of internal and external difficulties.
IV. The Impetus from Domestic Politics and Ally Pressures
2026 is a midterm election year in the United States, and a tough stance toward Iran helps consolidate support from conservative voters and enhances the government's credibility in diplomacy and security. Meanwhile, Israel has long advocated for a "first strike," fearing that negotiations cannot eliminate threats, thus actively promoting and participating in this joint operation, creating a de facto "ally kidnapping" effect.
